#Q2 2026 earnings

4 AI perspectives

The More You Distrust AI, the Better AI Companies Do — The Palantir Q2 Paradox

Palantir Technologies' Q2 2026 results delivered a stunning reversal of market expectations, posting $1.935B in total revenue — a 93% year-over-year growth rate that is extraordinarily rare for a company at this market capitalization scale. U.S. commercial revenue surged 149% to $764M while adjusted operating margins held firm at 62%, producing a Rule of 40 score of 155% that effectively rewrites the software industry's assumed growth-profitability tradeoff. The structural engine behind this acceleration is what the company calls "sovereign AI" — a categorical demand from governments and enterprises that refuse to surrender control of their most sensitive data to public cloud AI platforms. What makes Palantir's position particularly striking is the paradoxical competitive dynamic at its core: the more powerful and capable large AI platforms become, the more anxious institutions grow about handing over classified, proprietary, or competitively vital data — and the more indispensable Palantir's air-gapped AI infrastructure becomes. The stock surged 29% on the trading day following the earnings release yet remains more than 20% below its 52-week high of $207.52, signaling that market skepticism about the long-term sustainability of this growth trajectory persists even as the underlying results are undeniably exceptional.

8/9/2026

Economy

Eli Lilly Posted $23B in Revenue. So Why Did the Stock Fall? The Answer Is $3.03.

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) delivered Q2 2026 revenue of $22,974M — a 48% year-over-year increase — while non-GAAP EPS rose 33% to $8.38 and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $85.0B–$87.0B, results that by any conventional measure should have sent shares higher. Instead, LLY fell on the day of the announcement, and the explanation lives inside a single accounting line: $3.03 per share in acquired in-process research and development (IPR&D) expenses, representing $2.8B charged from the acquisitions of Orna Therapeutics, Ajax Therapeutics, Kelonia, and Centessa. This charge more than offset management's $2.78 midpoint raise to underlying non-GAAP EPS guidance, producing a paradox where the fundamental business outlook improved yet the final 2026 EPS guidance range settled lower at $35.50–$36.50. Global volumes surged 60% but net realized prices fell 13% globally, with international markets absorbing a 36% price collapse driven primarily by Mounjaro's entry into China's National Reimbursement Drug List — a mechanism distinct from a traditional price war and potentially exportable to other large markets. The Mounjaro-Zepbound duo generated roughly $14.87B in combined quarterly revenue — approximately 65% of total sales — creating a concentration risk that compounds the pricing concern. Novo Nordisk shares also fell roughly 5% on the same day the Danish drugmaker reported near-stagnant full-year guidance of 0% to minus 6%, suggesting the market is repricing the GLP-1 category as a whole rather than any single company's quarter. Retatrutide's planned Q1 2027 BLA submission across three indications and the additional $4.5B Indiana manufacturing commitment are the pivotal variables that will ultimately determine whether Lilly's aggressive invest-while-growing model justifies the premium it commands.

8/8/2026

Economy

Record Quarter, Record Crash — I Think Adidas CEO Björn Gulden Made the Right Bet

Adidas AG (ADS, Xetra) delivered record Q2 2026 net sales of €6.74 billion, representing 14% currency-neutral growth driven by approximately 18 million jersey sales during the FIFA World Cup in which both finalists wore Adidas kits — yet the stock collapsed 18.7% on the same day, marking the steepest single-session decline since the company's 1995 Frankfurt listing. The selloff was triggered by EBIT of €574 million missing the €623 million consensus, a surge in marketing and point-of-sale expenditure to €924 million (13.7% of net sales, €212 million above plan), and management's decision to hold the full-year EBIT guidance flat at approximately €2.3 billion despite raising revenue guidance to 9–10% currency-neutral growth. Key positives include a gross margin of 52.5% (up 0.8 percentage points year-over-year), DTC share at 57% with 25% DTC growth, Performance division growth of 39%, Apparel growth of 35%, and an undisclosed $250–300 million in potential tariff refunds not yet incorporated into guidance — alongside JPMorgan's maintained Overweight and €230 price target as of August 1, 2026. Structural uncertainties include whether the elevated marketing spend reflects a one-time World Cup investment or a permanent DTC-driven cost increase, CFO succession risk as Harm Ohlmeyer exits and Birgit Kretschmer formally assumes the role on January 1, 2027, and H2 base effects following the World Cup demand surge. The central argument presented here is that the market's reaction constitutes an overreaction to a one-time event, and that CEO Björn Gulden's aggressive brand investment during the World Cup was strategically justified given the brand's turnaround trajectory, Nike's concurrent revenue stagnation at $46.4 billion flat, and the strength of Adidas's underlying product economics.

8/4/2026

Economy

TSMC's Net Profit Surged 77% — Here's What the Headline Isn't Telling You

TSMC's Q2 2026 results set all-time records across the board, with quarterly revenue reaching $40.20 billion USD (+33.7% year-over-year) and net income of NT$706.56 billion (+77.4%), alongside an ADR EPS of US$4.31 and a net margin of 55.6%. Beneath these headline figures, however, lies a structural story that deserves far more scrutiny: the 12-percentage-point gap between operating income growth (+65.4%) and net income growth (+77.4%) is driven almost entirely by non-operating income surging 232.3% quarter-over-quarter to NT$95.83 billion, meaning this record profit print is not a pure reflection of TSMC's core manufacturing performance. Revenue expanded 36.0% in NT$ terms while wafer shipments rose only 16.6%, revealing that the majority of growth came from pricing power and advanced-node product mix rather than volume — a direct consequence of TSMC's near-monopolistic 72.3% foundry market share and its fourth consecutive year of sub-5nm price increases. Despite record operating cash flow of NT$783.36 billion, free cash flow actually declined from NT$348.21 billion to NT$287.36 billion as capital expenditures surged 66.9% year-over-year to NT$496.00 billion, reflecting the company's commitment to a $265 billion Arizona semiconductor megaproject that CEO C.C. Wei announced during the earnings conference. Management itself guided Q3 gross margins to 65–67%, below Q2's record 67.7%, citing N2 ramp-up dilution of approximately 3–4 percentage points — raising the critical question of whether Q2 represents a margin cycle peak or simply a temporary pause on the way to further expansion.

8/2/2026